Due to low volatility, the test of the levels I identified did not take place. As a result, I ended the day without any trades.
According to preliminary data from S&P Global, the UK manufacturing sector demonstrated resilience. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.9 in May, slightly above the April reading of 53.7. The index remains steadily above the 50-point threshold, which separates expansion from contraction, indicating continued growth in industrial production. This increase is a positive sign, especially at a time when other key economic indicators, such as demand, are showing signs of stagnation.
In the near term, traders are expected to focus on the release of the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI. If the ISM index shows positive dynamics, exceeding analyst expectations and confirming previous positive trends, it will undoubtedly support the U.S. dollar. However, in the context of global economic instability, the data is unlikely to deliver anything particularly strong or surprising.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1:
Today, I plan to buy the pound at an entry point around 1.3475 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.3509 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3509, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback from that level. A rise in the pound today is only possible in the case of weak U.S. data. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2:
I will also consider buying the pound if the price tests 1.3453 twice in a row while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the downward potential of the pair and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, a move toward 1.3475 and 1.3509 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1:
I plan to sell the pound after a move to 1.3453 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key downward target is 1.3412, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure may return today if strong U.S. data is released. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2:
I will also consider selling the pound if the price tests 1.3475 twice in a row while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. A decline toward 1.3453 and 1.3412 can be expected.
What is shown on the chart:
- Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
- Thick green line – expected take-profit level or manual profit-taking level, as further upside above this level is unlikely
- Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
- Thick red line – expected take-profit level or manual profit-taking level, as further downside below this level is unlikely
- MACD indicator – entry decisions should be guided by overbought and oversold zones
Important Note
Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions with extreme caution. Before major fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you may lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large position sizes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are, by definition, a losing strategy for intraday traders.
