Trade analysis and trading advice for the British pound
The 1.3361 price test occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for selling the pound. However, no major decline in the pair followed.
Due to the national holiday — Independence Day — the US trading session is effectively absent: exchanges and most markets are closed. Such days are almost always accompanied by lower volumes, and the currency market is no exception: the fewer active participants there are, the calmer price movements become. Therefore, in the second half of the day, it is reasonable to expect only subdued, uneventful dynamics in the dollar. At the same time, the British pound also loses direction: the GBP/USD pair risks spending the day in a sideways range, since without US participation, movements are driven only by local UK developments, which are insufficient today to form a sustained trend.
As for the intraday strategy, I will continue to rely mainly on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches around 1.3372 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.3402 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3402, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move against the level). A strong rise in the pound today is unlikely. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3350 when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal upward. A move toward 1.3372 and 1.3402 can be expected.
Sell signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below 1.3350 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.3317, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pound is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun declining from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3372 when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3350 and 1.3317 can be expected.
What is shown on the chart:
- Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
- Thick green line – expected price level for taking profit or manually closing positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely
- Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
- Thick red line – expected price level for taking profit or manually closing positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely
- MACD indicator – when entering trades, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones
Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are, from the outset, a losing intraday strategy.
