Trade Review and Trading Recommendations for the British Pound
The test of the 1.3387 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points.
The return of risk appetite set the tone for trading and removed the dollar's advantage from the first half of the day. As tensions surrounding the conflict eased and Iran did not launch any major retaliatory strikes, investors began reducing defensive positions, causing the U.S. dollar to decline against risk-sensitive assets. Against this backdrop, the British pound recovered its morning losses and strengthened against the dollar. The decline in safe-haven demand renewed interest in currencies sensitive to global risk sentiment, allowing GBP/USD to recover.
As long as no new alarming signals emerge from the Middle East, the pound may continue to hold its recent gains. However, the absence of significant U.S. economic data in the second half of the day is not a reason to sell the pound. Speeches from FOMC members Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller are scheduled ahead. Hawkish signals from Bowman and Waller could strengthen the dollar and put pressure on GBP/USD by the end of the U.S. session, while a more dovish tone would support the British currency.
Regarding my intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on the implementation of Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1
I plan to buy the pound today if the price reaches the entry level around 1.3403 (the green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.3434 (the thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3434, I plan to close long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move lower from this level.
A strong rise in the pound today may occur if the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish tone.
Important: Before opening a buy position, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward from it.
Scenario No. 2
I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.3381 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish reversal. The upward targets would be 1.3403 and 1.3434.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1
I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3381 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3346, where I plan to close short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound from this level.
Selling pressure on the pound is likely to increase if the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance.
Important: Before opening a sell position, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.
Scenario No. 2
I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3403 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish reversal. The downward targets would be 1.3381 and 1.3346.
Chart Legend
- Thin green line — entry level for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick green line — expected price level for placing a Take Profit order or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is considered unlikely.
- Thin red line — entry level for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick red line — expected price level for placing a Take Profit order or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is considered unlikely.
- MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important
Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally best to remain out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during major news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can lose your entire account balance very quickly, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade with large position sizes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
