The GBP/USD pair has posted strong gains in recent weeks, which may mark the beginning of a new bullish trend. However, at this stage, both the pound and bullish traders need at least a brief pause. The pound's rally has been exceptionally rapid, and moves of this magnitude rarely continue uninterrupted. Therefore, I expect a corrective pullback that could last several weeks.
Recent developments have supported the pound. Last week, bulls received an unexpected boost after U.S. inflation slowed to 3.5%. This was followed by Kevin Warsh's testimony before Congress, during which he refrained from signaling further monetary policy tightening, triggering another wave of disappointment among dollar bulls. As a result, there is no longer any certainty that the Federal Reserve will begin tightening monetary policy even in September.
By then, the market will have a clearer picture of the conflict in the Middle East, autumn oil and natural gas prices ahead of winter, and the way inflation responds to the evolving geopolitical and energy environment. Once these factors become clearer, it will be easier to assess the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) next policy steps. At the same time, discussions about restoring the ceasefire in the Middle East have resumed, while Yemen's Houthis have announced a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia. Consequently, market sentiment could shift rapidly in either direction.
Initially, the market expected U.S. inflation to continue rising unless the FOMC intervened. Later, concerns about further price increases eased as oil prices fell to around $70 per barrel. Last week, however, oil climbed to the $85–87 level, while the consequences of renewed escalation in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push prices even higher. Under the most pessimistic scenario, oil could return to the $100–120 per barrel range. In that case, hopes for slowing inflation in either the United States or the Eurozone would fade. Conversely, under a more optimistic scenario, oil prices could fall back to the $60–70 per barrel range, reducing the need for additional monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
Technical analysis indicates that the bulls remain in control and may continue their advance. Price first swept liquidity below the April 6 low and then below the March 31 low. These liquidity sweeps provided a solid technical foundation for sterling's rally over recent weeks. Given that the U.S. dollar still lacks convincing long-term bullish drivers and has already posted impressive gains in 2026, I believe the bears are unlikely to regain control.
Price also reacted twice to Bullish Imbalance 23, providing traders with buying opportunities. Meanwhile, Bearish Imbalance 21 has been invalidated. Therefore, I expect the pound's upward movement to resume once the current corrective pullback, which has been developing over the past few days, is complete.
It is also worth noting that a new bullish imbalance formed on Thursday, although it is currently too small to include on the chart. Nevertheless, there is a price gap in the 1.3440–1.3460 level that could attract market attention.
The economic calendar was empty on Monday, aside from another round of geopolitical developments. The conflict in the Middle East could either escalate further in the coming days or return to the path of ceasefire negotiations. The outcome will largely determine the direction of oil prices, inflation, and future central bank policy.
The broader fundamental backdrop still leads me to expect further long-term weakness in the U.S. dollar. Neither the conflict between Iran and the United States nor the possibility of Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026 has changed that view. Geopolitical tensions temporarily reminded investors of the dollar's safe-haven status, but the most intense phase of the conflict has already passed.
The Federal Reserve intends to raise interest rates in 2026, which is supportive of the dollar. However, tighter monetary policy would also slow economic growth and weaken the labor market. It should also be remembered that Kevin Warsh was appointed by Donald Trump to lead the FOMC with the expectation of pursuing a more accommodative monetary policy—something Jerome Powell was unwilling to deliver. Therefore, in my opinion, any appreciation of the U.S. dollar is likely to be temporary rather than sustainable.
Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom
United Kingdom
- Unemployment Rate (06:00 UTC)
- Average Earnings Index (06:00 UTC)
- Claimant Count Change (06:00 UTC)
On July 21, the economic calendar includes three UK labor market reports that may attract traders' attention during the first half of the day. As a result, macroeconomic data is expected to influence market sentiment on Tuesday.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Outlook
The long-term outlook for GBP/USD remains bullish. Following the liquidity sweeps below the two most recent swing lows, the bulls have regained control. The pound could still resume its decline toward the bullish trend invalidation level at 1.3007, but that would require new bearish signals, which are currently absent.
The bullish case is supported by the two liquidity sweeps as well as Bullish Imbalance 23. Price has already reacted to that imbalance, while the next upside targets remain the highs of May 1 and January 27 at 1.3656 and 1.3867, respectively. A new bullish imbalance also formed after the pound's sharp rally on Wednesday in the 1.3440–1.3460 level.
