Despite renewed US–Iran tensions, oil rising to five-week highs, and Houthi threats to block the Red Sea, markets have for now "switched off" geopolitics and refocused on strong corporate results and the incoming tech earnings slate.
From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 remains constructive, although indicators give mixed signals:
- The RSI (14) on the daily chart sits around 49–51, indicating neutral momentum.
- The OsMA remains in negative territory.
- Stochastic has entered the oversold zone.
At the same time, after bouncing from the support level of 7,420.00 and the 50-day EMA, the index is trading above the 200-day EMA (7,020.00), confirming the medium-term uptrend.
Resistance is located at 7,500.00 (4-hour 50-EMA, 1-hour 200-EMA and a round level) and 7,530.00. A breakout above 7,530.00 with indicator confirmation could open the path to 7,600.00 and 7,700.00.
Conditions
- Consolidation above 7,530.00–7,550.00 would confirm a resistance breakout and open the way to 7,600.00 and 7,700.00.
- Strong corporate reports (Alphabet, Tesla) that confirm resilient demand for AI products and services.
- Easing geopolitical tensions and stabilizing oil prices, which would reduce inflationary expectations.
- A technical recovery above 7,550.00 with indicator confirmation (RSI above 60, OsMA crossing above zero) would signal a change in momentum.
Immediate support sits at 7,468.00 (200-EMA on the 4-hour chart) – 7,420.00 (50-EMA on the daily chart). Further support levels are 7,400.00 (psychological mark) and 7,330.00 (local support).
A confirmed break below 7,460.00 would open the way to 7,400.00, leading to an extended decline to 7,300.00 and 7,200.00. Consider pending buy orders in the key zone 7,150.00–7,020.00 (144- and 200-period EMAs on the daily chart) to enter the market at more attractive levels: the global bullish trend of the S&P 500 remains intact.
Conditions for the bullish scenario
- Consolidation above 7,550.00 will confirm the resistance breakout and open the path to 7,600.00 and 7,700.00.
- Strong corporate reports (Alphabet, Tesla) confirming robust demand for AI products and services.
- Easing geopolitical tensions and stabilizing oil prices, which would reduce inflation expectations.
- A technical recovery above 7,550.00 with indicator confirmation (RSI above 60, OsMA crossing above zero) would signal a momentum shift.
Main scenario (base case for 1–2 weeks)
Most likely dynamic — volatile consolidation in the 7,420.00–7,550.00 range with an attempt to break higher if corporate results are strong and geopolitical risks ease.
Rationale
- Uncertainty around earnings and geopolitics creates elevated volatility. Markets will wait for signals from both drivers to determine the next leg.
- The technical picture supports a maintained uptrend (price above EMAs), but neutral oscillator readings and approaching the 7,550.00 resistance level suggest consolidation is probable.
Recommendation — cautious
Prioritize long positions on a confirmed break above 7,550.00. Short positions are appropriate only on a confirmed break below 7,460.00 and supported by fundamental factors.
Trading scenarios
- Bullish scenario: Buy Stop at 7,520.00, 7,540.00, 7,560.00. Stop-loss: 7,460.00, 7,450.00. Targets: 7,600.00, 7,700.00, 7,800.00, 7,900.00, 8,000.00.
- Bearish scenario: Sell Stop at 7,460.00, 7,450.00. Stop-loss: 7,510.00, 7,520.00. Targets: 7,420.00, 7,400.00, 7,330.00, 7,300.00, 7,250.00, 7,200.00, 7,150.00, 7,100.00, 7,020.00, 7,000.00, 6,920.00, 6,900.00, 6,870.00, 6,800.00.
Note: "Targets" correspond to support/resistance levels. They are not guaranteed to be reached but can serve as reference points for planning and order placement.
