Well?known crypto enthusiast Arthur Hayes, in a new essay titled "Situationship," builds a provocative thesis explaining why Bitcoin in 2026 has not shown growth proportional to the increase in global money supply. In his view, the lion's share of liquidity in recent years has been captured by the AI sector, which explains the disconnect between money printing and the weak performance of the digital asset. The market's key mistake, Hayes argues, is that investments in data centers, power plants and AI infrastructure are treated as investments in a tech business, whereas economically they are ordinary real estate—capital-intensive, long-lived and reliant on debt financing—not a rapidly scalable software product. For that reason, the sector, in his assessment, is heavily overvalued.
The central parallel of the essay is not with the 2000 dot-com crash but with the 2008 mortgage crisis. Hayes contends the problem will not arise from falling profits at AI companies but from the huge volume of loans extended to build data centers and related infrastructure. Even if demand for compute continues to grow, chips will become more powerful and efficient, meaning existing data centers can perform more computations per square metre and reduce the need for new construction. It is the slowdown in new investment—rather than a drop in AI companies' revenues—that Hayes predicts will be the first warning sign the market notices in 2027, with the full problem manifesting by 2028.
Hayes argues that this hypothetical new wave of liquidity, released after the AI cycle reverses and the sector is ultimately bailed out by governments, will become the main driver of the next long?term Bitcoin rally — potentially pushing the asset to $1 million and beyond. The logic of the essay echoes earlier explanations for the crypto market's current weakness offered by Michael Saylor, who called the capital shift into AI infrastructure an "AI summer," and is consistent with reports of crypto-venture funds such as Paradigm pivoting to AI and robotics, and of mining companies whose stock gains are driven by contracts with data-center operators rather than by Bitcoin mining itself. The difference is that Hayes goes a step beyond noting the capital flow: he turns the temporary liquidity outflow from crypto into the premise for a future over-leverage crisis across the AI industry, from which, in his scenario, Bitcoin will emerge as a chief beneficiary once states are forced to print money again to rescue the system.
Trading recommendations
Bitcoin
Buyers are currently targeting a return to $64,800, which opens a direct path to $66,000 and then to $66,800 — a break above which would signal attempts to re-enter a bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $62,300. A move back below that area could quickly push BTC toward $60,600. The next target would be the $58,500 area.
Ethereum
A clear hold above $1,880 would open a direct path to $1,920. The further target is the high near $1,961 — a breach of which would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $1,841. A return below that level could quickly send ETH toward $1,782, with a further target at $1,745.
What's on the chart
- The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
- The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
- The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
- The lime line is the 200-day moving average.
Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.
