Bitcoin and Ethereum have slightly recovered after the drop experienced over the past weekend. Overall, the situation in the cryptocurrency market is relatively calm.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant reported that the share of Bitcoin held at a profit by holders has dropped to 51.4%—the lowest level in over three years. This means that 48.6% of the entire circulating supply is currently held at an unrealized loss. This is a stark reversal compared to the October peak of the cycle, when nearly 100% of coins were in profit. The last time this metric fell to similar levels was in early 2023, when Bitcoin was trading in the range of $16,000-20,000, while today's price is holding three times higher, highlighting the scale of the current correction relative to how much capital entered the asset at much higher levels over the past two years.
The dynamics of recent months show that the market approached this zone not with a single sharp jump but gradually. As of August 5, the share of profitable coins was 52%. The metric had briefly dropped below 50% in June and July before recovering, and the current 51.4% represents a renewed attempt to test the same critical boundary. Such volatility around the psychological mark of 50%, rather than a single sharp drop, is characteristic of a protracted capitulation process rather than a one-time event.
As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.
Bitcoin
Buy Scenario
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when the entry point reaches around $63,800, with a target for growth to the level of $64,200. Around $64,200, I will exit my buy positions and immediately sell on the bounce. Before buying on a breakout, make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.
Scenario No. 2: I can buy Bitcoin at the lower boundary of $63,600 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction toward levels of $63,700 and $64,200.
Sell Scenario
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today at around $63,600, targeting a drop to $63,100. Around $63,100, I will exit my sell positions and immediately buy on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.
Scenario No. 2: I can sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary of $63,700 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction to levels $63,500 and $63,100.
Ethereum
Buy Scenario
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when the entry point reaches around $1,907, with a target for growth to the level of $1,926. Around $1,926, I will exit my buy positions and immediately sell on the bounce. Before buying on a breakout, make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.
Scenario No. 2: I can buy Ethereum from the lower boundary of $1,897 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction to levels $1,907 and $1,926.
Sell Scenario
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when the entry point reaches around $1,897 with a target for a drop to the level of $1,885. Around $1,885, I will exit my sell positions and immediately buy on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.
Scenario No. 2: I can sell Ethereum from the upper boundary of $1,907 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction to levels $1,897 and $1,885.
