Trade review of Monday:
1H chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair also showed very low volatility on Monday and a complete unwillingness to move in either direction. While EUR/USD had formal reasons to move more actively, with two reports in Germany and the EU, GBP/USD had no grounds for active moves. In the morning session, the pound posted minimal gains, and that was essentially the end of the movement. Note one important fact: on Friday, the US released a very strong Nonfarm Payrolls report that did not prompt a significant strengthening of the US currency. Sometimes price moves in the expected direction, then immediately retraces and only the next day resumes the logical move. But this time, even on Monday, the dollar failed to strengthen. This means the strong NFP really did not affect market sentiment. That can mean only one thing: traders do not believe in Federal Reserve tightening in September or have already priced it in. We still see no reasons for further US dollar strength.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
On the 5-minute TF on Monday, no trading signals were generated. The day's volatility was about 40 pips, and with such volatility it was extremely difficult to expect reliable signal formation and execution. There were no grounds for traders to open new positions on Monday.
How to trade on Tuesday:
On the hourly TF, GBP/USD continues a downward corrective trend. In our view, sterling should continue to rise in the medium term under any scenario, but right now it remains in correction. On the weekly TF, the move from the lower boundary of the lateral channel to the upper boundary continues and may not yet be complete. Thus we expect a resumption of the northbound impulse.
On Tuesday, novice traders may consider short positions targeting 1.3456–1.3476 if price bounces from the 1.3587–1.3598 area. Long positions can be opened with targets of 1.3587–1.3598 in the event of a bounce from 1.3456–1.3476.
On the 5-minute TF, you can trade the levels 1.3259–1.3267, 1.3319–1.3331, 1.3380–1.3386, 1.3456–1.3476, 1.3587–1.3598, 1.3631–1.3641, 1.3695, 1.3741. No major events or publications are scheduled in the UK on Tuesday, and the US will release only the largely irrelevant weekly ADP report. Therefore, we do not expect strong moves on the second trading day of the week.
Key Rules of the Trading System:
- The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
- If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
- In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
- On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
- If two levels are positioned too close to each other (within 5-20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
- After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.
What to Look for on the Charts:
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that illustrate the current trend and show the preferred direction for trading.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding movement.
Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.
