Trade review and trading tips for the Japanese yen
The price test at 157.15 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero line, confirming a correct entry to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair rose toward the target area near 157.51.
The dollar resumed gains after three Federal Reserve officials broadly signaled that the tightening cycle is likely not over. Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin and Boston Fed president Susan Collins warned that inflationary shocks may take longer to fade, and New York Fed president John Williams echoed their view. For the yen, the day brought no domestic data, and without fresh Japanese data the pair continued higher despite occasional notable yen-buying attempts that the market quickly faded. This dynamic suggests that even pronounced safe-haven bids have not reversed the dollar-led trend. Without new signals from the Bank of Japan or Japanese data, the initiative will most likely remain with dollar buyers, and any USD/JPY corrections lower are likely to be short-lived.
For intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy scenarios
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry around 157.71 (green line on the chart), targeting 158.05 (the thicker green line). Around 158.05, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip retracement from that level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks. Important: before buying, ensure the MACD is above zero and only beginning to rise.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 157.51 while the MACD is in oversold territory. That would limit downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Expect moves to 157.71 and 158.05.
Sell scenarios
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a break below 157.51 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline. The sellers' primary target will be 157.17, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip reversal). Sellers can return at any moment — it only takes a hint from the central bank. Important: before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and only beginning to fall.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 157.71 while the MACD is in overbought territory. That would limit the pair's upside and trigger a reversal down. Expect a decline to 157.51 and 157.17.
What to Look for on the Chart:
- Thin Green Line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
- Thick Green Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
- Thin Red Line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
- Thick Red Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
- MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.
Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
