On the hourly chart, GBP/USD continued to decline on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the 100.0% correction level at 1.3272. A rebound from this level would favor the European currency and some growth toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3368. Consolidation below 1.3272 would allow for a further decline toward the next corrective level of 127.2% at 1.3164.
The market situation remains bearish. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the new downward wave, which is still forming, broke the previous low. Thus, the bears now have the initiative. The FOMC's tightening of monetary policy and the hawkish outlook conveyed by Kevin Warsh sharply improved bearish sentiment. A break in the current trend is now possible only above 1.3567.
There was no news background in the UK or the US on Tuesday, but UK business activity indices will be released in an hour today. When there is nothing else available, even a relatively minor piece of information can be useful, although traders do not currently need such a catalyst. The bears continue to attack on the same factor: increasingly hawkish views on monetary policy among FOMC members. A week ago, the Fed decided to begin a gradual cycle of interest-rate increases, while the dollar continued to rise before the meeting, during the meeting, and a week after the meeting. Yesterday, FOMC members Barkin, Collins, and Williams spoke, and each of the three officials discussed high inflation to some extent and the need to continue tightening monetary policy to bring inflation down. Thus, the market receives confirmation every day that the Fed's rate will only rise, but should every confirmation of an already obvious fact trigger another rise in the US currency? In my view, the dollar is going round in the same circle, while traders are trading on the same factor.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD consolidated below the 61.8% corrective level at 1.3348, allowing traders to expect a further decline toward the next Fibonacci level of 76.4% at 1.3277. A rebound from 1.3277 would allow for a reversal in favor of the pound and some growth toward 1.3348. No new emerging divergences are observed in any of the indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category remained unchanged over the latest reporting week and is still bearish. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 4,189, while the number of Short positions decreased by 4,310. The current gap between the numbers of Long and Short positions is effectively 69,000 versus 128,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, but the bears still maintain a substantial advantage. Previously, the bears' dominance raised no questions, but it does now because the news background has changed.
I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has adjusted its expectations toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the US failed before they had properly begun. And there is no guarantee that they will resume in the near future.
News calendar for the US and the UK:
- UK – Manufacturing PMI (08:30 UTC).
- UK – Services PMI (08:30 UTC).
- US – Manufacturing PMI (13:45 UTC).
- US – Services PMI (13:45 UTC).
The economic calendar for September 23 contains four entries, of which I would highlight the UK indices. The economic background may influence market sentiment on Wednesday, but the impact is unlikely to be strong.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling the pair is possible today if it consolidates below 1.3272 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3177. Buying is possible on a rebound from 1.3272, with a target of 1.3368.
The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3272 to 1.3674 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
