Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Euro
The test of 1.1191 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for a short position on the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 10 points.
The economic calendar did not provide the euro with any significant positive developments. There is no significant economic data today, while the ECB meeting report is still due, and market participants prefer to wait rather than risk their positions. The result is predictable. EUR/USD is moving lower and is targeting a new monthly low, although the market had already seen the currency fall to levels not seen since May 2025 on Monday.
Attention will then shift to the ECB report. A hawkish tone from policymakers could allow the euro to recover some ground, while a cautious tone would only confirm that the region is caught between inflation and weak demand. The Eurogroup meeting will provide an additional backdrop, as discussions of fiscal risks could increase concerns about France. The evening is expected to be as subdued for the euro as the first half of the day. The only economic data due are weekly U.S. jobless claims, with around 200,000 expected, and wholesale inventories, followed by a speech from Alberto Musalem. None of this is likely to push the pair higher, while comments from the U.S. policymaker are unlikely to prevent the dollar from continuing to strengthen against risk-sensitive assets. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD will remain under pressure. The euro's only opportunity would be unexpectedly weak U.S. economic data. If jobless claims significantly exceed 200,000, the dollar could temporarily lose support, giving the single currency an opportunity to recover some of its losses. In the absence of such a surprise, the euro is likely to continue moving lower, while political concerns surrounding France and Spain could intensify any downward pressure.
As for the intraday strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: The euro can be bought today when the price reaches around 1.1195 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1225. At 1.1225, the position can be closed, and the euro can also be sold in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro can be expected today following weak U.S. data. Important: Before entering a long position, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.
Scenario #2: The euro can also be bought today if the price tests 1.1173 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1195 and 1.1225 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: The euro can be sold after the price reaches 1.1173 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1150, where the position can be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points from the level. Downward pressure on the pair could return at any time. Important: Before entering a short position, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.
Scenario #2: The euro can also be sold today if the price tests 1.1195 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1173 and 1.1150 can be expected.
What the Chart Shows:
- Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
- Thick green line — the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is considered unlikely;
- Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
- Thick red line — the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is considered unlikely;
- MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take overbought and oversold zones into account.
Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise great caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire account balance very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large position sizes.
It is important to remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently an unsuccessful strategy for an intraday trader.
