Today, gold rose sharply after traders scaled back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this month following remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. At one point, the metal climbed toward $4,190/oz, recouping most of last week's losses. Silver rose about 0.8% to $57.42/oz, and platinum and palladium also gained.
The main driver was a repricing of Fed expectations. The probability of a 25-bp hike fell to less than one in five after market participants read Warsh's comments as supporting a pause at next week's meeting. For gold — a non-yielding asset — expensive money is always a headwind, so any easing of rate expectations immediately supports the metal.
Recall that a week earlier strong US inflation prints had stoked rate-hike bets and strengthened the dollar, and Warsh's words halted that move. Gold also found support from a tech sell-off amid renewed concerns about the payback on large AI investments and from a bond rally that pushed yields lower. When equities fall and bonds rally, demand for safe-haven assets naturally rises.
Fundamentals for the metal remain solid. Gold has held above the key $4,000 support since August, and its safe-haven status has helped after the early-year conflict pushed the market into a bear phase. Investors have been adding to gold-backed ETFs for 13 consecutive weeks.
The picture is not unambiguous, however. Since the US–Iran conflict erupted in late February, gold is still down roughly a fifth. Traders still see a significant chance of another rate hike before year-end, and that remains the principal headwind near term.
All told, the current rally looks more like a retracement of last week's sell-off than the start of a new uptrend. I think gold will trade in a narrow $4,170–$4,190 band until the Fed meeting; a meaningful move higher would require fresh signs of Fed caution and further declines in yields. If the market again prices in additional hikes, the metal will come under renewed pressure, though I view $4,000 as a reliable support.
Buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $4,192 to target $4,249, above which a breakout will be difficult. The farther upside target is $4,304. On the downside, bears will try to seize $4,124; if they succeed, a range breakdown would deal a serious blow to bull positions and push gold down to $4,062 with the prospect of extending to $4,047.
