Bitcoin rose to $83,000 on Tuesday, Ether gained roughly 2.5%, and XRP about 3%. The trigger was reports that the US and Iran had allegedly agreed to end the war mediated by Qatar and Pakistan. According to those publications, Tehran would gain access to about $6 billion in Iranian funds frozen in Qatari banks and would allow a confidential visit by IAEA inspectors. Versions differed in details; one suggested it was only the interest on that sum. There was no official confirmation from any side, but the market moved on the rumor. The logic is simple. Less risk of escalation around Hormuz means cheaper oil, weaker rate-hike expectations and greater risk appetite.
The move was supported by institutional money. On Monday, October 19, US spot Bitcoin ETFs gathered $526.7 million, of which $665.2 million flowed into IBIT from BlackRock — its largest daily inflow since October 7, 2025, according to SoSoValue. Fidelity and Grayscale funds, meanwhile, showed outflows. It is worth noting that the inflow was concentrated in a single issuer, which does not equal broad institutional demand.
In the evening and overnight, the deal began to unravel. A source close to Iran's chief negotiator Ghalibaf called the reports of an imminent agreement false. Iranian agencies Nour News and Tasnim reported that the Qatari delegation did not come to Tehran. Araqchi only confirmed that indirect talks via Pakistan and Qatar continue. The main disagreement remained unchanged. Washington wants to close the nuclear issue first, while Tehran demands lifting the naval blockade, removing limits on oil sales and returning assets first. Hormuz added to the alarm, as Fars reported that a supertanker with two million barrels was blown up there by a mine. By the morning of October 21 Brent had risen roughly 1.4%.
The Fear & Greed Index on October 20 stood at 55 points — the greed zone; the day before it was 59, and on October 18 it was 53. That means the market entered Tuesday in a moderately greedy state, but not extreme, and the peak came on Monday when money flowed into ETFs. The drop from 59 to 55 while the price rose shows that buyers were cautious and did not chase the rumor. I would not read this as a warning of a reversal, but rather as confirmation of a sideways market.
Bitcoin
The price is holding in a narrow range between support at 82,600 and resistance at 83,100, with external reference points at 81,900 below and 83,800 above, so the plan is built around two mirrored directions, each with a breakout and a bounce scenario.
I consider buying in two cases. If price breaks 83,100 to the upside and holds above it, I buy with a target of 83,800, provided the price stays above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero; at the target, I take profit and consider a short on the pullback. If the break of 82,600 to the downside isn't confirmed and price returns above, I buy the bounce with an initial target of 83,100 and then 83,800.
I structure selling symmetrically. If price breaks 82,600 to the downside and holds below it, I open a short position with a target of 81,900, provided the moving average is above price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If the break of 83,100 to the upside isn't confirmed and price returns below, I sell the bounce, with an initial target of 82,600 and then 81,900.
Ether
The logic fully mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale, with a range between support at 2,432 and resistance at 2,444, and external reference points at 2,410 below and 2,467 above. I buy a break of 2,444 to the upside, holding above it with a target of 2,467, provided the price is above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. If the break of 2,432 to the downside isn't confirmed and price returns above, I buy the bounce with an initial target of 2,444 and then 2,467.
I sell a break of 2,432 to the downside, holding below it, with a target of 2,410, provided the moving average is above price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If the break of 2,444 to the upside isn't confirmed and price returns below, I sell the bounce, with an initial target of 2,432 and then 2,410. Both indicators remain filters to cut off false moves, not standalone reasons to enter early, and I make the decision only after price confirms the specified levels.
