Ask any neighbour on a park bench who they hold responsible for high petrol and shop prices, and you will get a unanimous answer. Just as a few years ago every radio and TV pumped out endless stories about Bitcoin and its price, today the relentless coverage is about war in the Middle East. Analysts long ago concluded that Iran and Ukraine are, in a sense, to blame for high oil and fuel prices: Iran strikes Gulf refineries and threatens the Strait of Hormuz, while Ukraine hits Russian refineries. Analysts note that Ukrainian strikes inside Russia have aggravated fuel pressures, but the initial price spike came in the first half of this year and was driven primarily by the onset of conflict in the Middle East. Everyone remembers who started that war.
Yesterday US Vice President J. D. Vance was asked by reporters why gasoline prices are so high. His answer surprised many. He said high fuel prices are connected to the actions of "dictators." He did not specify which actions or which dictators. He reminded listeners that energy prices rose after the start of the conflict in Ukraine, even though that was five years ago, while Americans care about price rises in 2026.
Unsurprisingly, Vance's words provoked a wave of criticism, and people quickly reminded the vice president whom to thank for $110 oil. In broad terms, Vance was not wrong, yet he hardly intended to point a finger at the president. Clearly he meant some other dictators—possibly even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. But the public heard it differently.
So, a week before the US midterms, the vice president inadvertently and openly suggests that the president is to blame for high diesel and other fuel prices. The situation is almost comical. It is worth noting that most analysts now expect the Republicans to lose both houses of Congress; a month ago predictions focused only on the House. It feels increasingly like the Republicans are digging their own grave.
Other articles to read:
EUR/USD analysis. October 27. EUR shows no signs of life.
Wave analysis for EUR/USD
Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude the instrument remains within a global corrective A-B-C-D-E segment. However, this structure now looks complete and may be ending. In my view this is a good time not only to buy the euro but also to expect a full bullish leg of the trend. On the higher timeframe, expect a rise to the 1.17–1.18 area. The failed breakout at 1.1126—equal to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement (lower chart, higher timeframe)—also signals the market's readiness to buy.
Wave analysis for GBP/USD
The wave picture for GBP/USD has become fairly clear. Charts show a distinct A-B-C corrective structure that may be complete. A similar structure in EUR/USD may likewise be finishing. If that assumption holds, the pound has completed the decline that concerned many traders in recent weeks. Sterling could then move from correction to a full bullish leg, with targets above the peaks of waves B and D—i.e., above the 1.37 area. I think now is a good time to build long-term.
Core principles of my analysis:
1) Wave structures should be simple and comprehensible. Complex structures are hard to trade and often change.
2) If you are not confident about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.
3) There is never 100% certainty about direction; always use protective stop-loss orders.
4) Wave analysis can be combined with other methods and trading strategies.
