Bitcoin has pulled back slightly to around $77,000 after trading below $76,500 earlier today. According to CryptoQuant, $77,700 is the cost basis for those who bought the asset in the last three months — the most speculative and price-sensitive cohort of traders. Price had been holding above that level since August 19, and in bull markets it historically acted as rising support. Now everything is changing.
The mechanics of the role reversal are simple. When price drops below the cost basis, a large share of recent buyers becomes underwater, and they use any return to breakeven as an opportunity to exit. That is why supply appears at $77,700 that wasn't there before.
Short-term holders — owners of coins held up to 155 days — are also on the brink of losses. Their cost basis is $75,832. If price closes below that level, the next psychological support becomes the area around $64,500.
Given that October closed down 7.3%, with the US midterms ahead (after which the market has declined the last two times sharply) and a Fed rate hike in December priced in, these are strong arguments in favor of selling rather than buying.
Today JOLTs job-openings data will be released, forecast 7.11m versus prior 7.08m, and on Friday the payrolls report is due with a consensus near 65,000 new jobs after 29,000 in September. Because of this, strong macro prints are now seen as negative for risk assets since they reinforce bets on a hawkish rate path.
Bitcoin
The working range runs between $76,900 (support) and $77,200 (resistance). The plan covers two mirrored directions with full scenarios for breakouts and rejections. A buy position is considered on a confirmed break above $77,200, provided price is above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. The target for such a trade is $77,900 — take profit there and consider reversing into a short on the pullback. If a drop under $76,900 proves false, a buy from the lower band first aims at a return to $77,200 and then the wider target of $77,900.
Shorts are structured symmetrically. A confirmed break below $76,900 opens a short targeting $76,200, provided the 50-day MA sits above price and Awesome is below zero. If an upside break above $77,200 fails, a short position from the top targets a return to $76,900 and then lower to $76,200.
Ethereum
The logic mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale. The range is between $2,254 (support) and $2,266 (resistance). Buy on a confirmed break above $2,266, with price above the 50-day MA and Awesome > 0, targeting $2,285 — take profit there and consider a short on the pullback. If a downside spike below $2,254 is false, a buy from support first targets $2,266 and then $2,285.
Sell on a confirmed break below $2,254, when the MA is above price and Awesome < 0, with a target at 2,232. If an upside break to $2,266 fails, a short from the top aims first at $2,254 and then $2,232. Both indicators are used as filters to weed out false moves, not as standalone entry triggers; trades are executed only after price confirms the specified levels.
