Bitcoin fell below $76,000 today, plunging as much as 6.0% at the low and marking a seven-week trough. Ethereum lost roughly 8%. The market had returned above $80,000 and seen ETF inflows yesterday, so the current reversal wiped out the post-election bounce. The impulse came from stocks: the Nasdaq-100 plunged 6.4%, led by chipmakers downgrading profit outlooks. The index had already lost about $1 trillion of market cap in five hours earlier, when Bitcoin reacted more mildly — this time the market is selling everything linked to risk.
Adding to the pressure were concerns that Democratic control of Congress will bring tougher oversight of the AI sector. That hit tech stocks and, through them, crypto — which was already suffering from the Binance hack and cooling retail interest. Even falling Treasury yields, which normally support speculative assets, did not help this time.
It's clear Bitcoin doesn't depend on tech profits, but investors sell correlated risk positions when cutting risk exposure, and leveraged liquidations amplify the move. Losers include miners and crypto-exchange equities; winners were those who locked in profits earlier.
Technically, the picture has worsened. Bitcoin had been trading above the cost basis of short-term holders (CryptoQuant) at $75,832, but the price has now fallen below that level. A month ago, almost all coins bought in the past 155 days were in profit; now the majority are underwater. That means any rally toward purchase prices will meet sellers trying to exit at breakeven.
Views on the outlook diverge. Some see the drop as part of a general risk reduction and argue yesterday's rally should not have occurred. Others say the fall was driven by factors unrelated to Bitcoin's price cycle and fundamentals and expect long-term growth to resume once the market calms. I believe that until the tech sector stabilizes, Bitcoin will remain under pressure, and the ETF inflows on Wednesday were too weak to change that. In the coming days, I expect trading below $76,000, with bounces running into the $77,700–78,000 area — the cost basis of recent buyers.
Technical analysis and recommendations
Bitcoin
Buyers are currently targeting a return to $76,900, which would open a direct path to $78,500 and then toward $79,900 — a break above which would signal attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $75,300. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC toward $72,800. The next downside target would be around $71,100.
Ethereum
A clear hold above $2,241 would open a direct path to $2,312. The farther target is the $2,383 high; overcoming that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $2,176. A return below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,137. The next downside target would be around $2,084.
Chart notes:
- Red levels denote support and resistance points where price is expected to either stall or accelerate.
- Green shows the 50-day moving average.
- Blue shows the 100-day moving average.
- Light green shows the 200-day moving average.
Crosses of — or price tests of — these moving averages typically either stop the move or set a new market impulse.
