Today, gold rose by 1.3% to $4,124 an ounce, wiping out Friday's decline. Silver gained 2.6% to $53.27, while platinum and palladium also advanced. Recall that on Wednesday, November 4, gold opened at $3,942 and, following the election outcome, moved back above the $4,000 mark, which now again appears to be a support level.
The primary bullish argument today is equity market jitters. Nvidia's board has opened an investigation into CEO Jensen Huang, which is restraining gains in Asian tech stocks after the heaviest sell-off in about a year and a half. When risk appetite fades, investors tend to move back into gold as a safe-haven asset. That benefits metal buyers and hurts holders of AI-sector equities. It's worth noting that at the end of October, the dynamic was reversed: the metal was sold to cover losses in stocks, and gold finished the month down 6.8%.
The second factor is oil. Prices continued to fall, posting their biggest weekly decline since April 2020, as traders weigh diplomatic efforts to resolve the US–Iran tensions against new attacks in the region. That's an important chain of influence for gold: cheaper oil eases inflation concerns, lowers the likelihood of a tighter Fed, and reduces pressure on a non-yielding asset.
The restraining factor remains unchanged. A strong US jobs report on Friday showed payrolls rising by 165,000 versus a 65,000 forecast, unemployment falling to 4.1%, and Michigan consumer sentiment rising to 51.0 from 48.0. As a result, the market still expects a Fed rate hike at the December 9 meeting. The current policy range is 3.75–4.00%, and traders are also pricing in a move in March. Tighter policy is the main headwind for gold and is what halted its advance late last week.
The next clue will come from US inflation data due Tuesday. Headline CPI for September was 3.7% year-over-year, and core CPI stood at 2.6%. That report will test whether safe-haven demand is sufficient to overcome the ceiling created by a strong dollar. I believe that over the next sessions, the metal will most likely hold above $4,000 and could consolidate around $4,100. However, a decisive breakout to new October highs will require softer inflation prints. If Tuesday's reading comes in above expectations, I expect selling pressure to return and the price to retest the lower boundary, especially if equities rebound and the dollar strengthens.
As for gold's technical picture, buyers need to overcome the immediate resistance level of $4,124. That would allow a move toward $4,192, above which a further advance would be difficult. The next upside target is the $4,249 area. On the downside, if gold falls, bears will try to seize control of $4,062. If they succeed, a range breakout would seriously damage bullish positions and push gold toward a $4,001 low, with a prospect of extending weakness toward $3,954.
