Many traders, seeing this headline, have probably already run to open champagne, cut a celebratory cake, and expect gasoline prices to fall and inflation to slow. In reality, however, the war with Iran has, so far, ended only in Donald Trump's words. Remember how many times Trump has already announced the end of a war, the imminent signing of a peace deal, a U.S. victory, and so on. Therefore another fiery speech about ending the Middle East conflict looks unconvincing. Especially if one recalls that just a few days ago Iran struck commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz again, and Washington "responded" by hitting Iranian military targets.
In the past several days there have indeed been reports of resumed talks, of some progress, of rapprochement between Tehran and Washington and of both sides' readiness to make certain concessions. If these reports are not just more rumors, I believe the conflict could be ended—but over a horizon of several months, not within a couple of days. Back in the summer I wrote that a peace deal would be possible only when both sides are ready to make concessions. In November 2026 they appear to be ready. That said, this does not guarantee negotiations will succeed, that a deal will be signed or that a ceasefire will hold for more than a week.
By the way, Secretary of State Marco Rubio does not see particular progress in talks with Iran. Donald Trump, meanwhile, says the U.S. has already prevailed and that new strikes will not be necessary unless Iran rejects the deal. Imagine a scenario in which Washington's concessions are minimal while Tehran refuses to abandon its nuclear program. Is a deal possible then? In my view, no—so I would not celebrate prematurely the end of the Middle East war.
It is, however, positive that oil prices have fallen below $100 per barrel. That does not mean global supplies of oil and other energy sources have increased, nor that the Strait of Hormuz has been unblocked. Still, the price drop is a hopeful sign. A somewhat meaningless one, perhaps, because shortages of oil, gas and fuel persist. Trump also said Iran has "collapsed financially" and that inflation in 2026 reached 300%. He warned Tehran would suffer an even greater collapse if it refused a deal with Washington.
Other articles to read:
EUR/USD review. November 10. What surprises inflation may bring
Wave analysis for EUR/USD:
Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude the instrument remains within a global corrective A-B-C-D-E trend segment. However, this structure looks complete and may be finished. In my view, now is a good time not only to buy the European currency but also to expect a full bullish trend segment. On the higher timeframe one should expect a rise of at least 1,700–1,800 pips. An unsuccessful attempt to break 1.1126, which corresponds to 50.0% on Fibonacci (lower chart, higher timeframe), also indicates market readiness to buy.
Wave analysis for GBP/USD:
The wave picture for GBP/USD has become fairly clear. Charts show a distinct corrective A-B-C-D-E structure that may be complete. A similar structure on EUR/USD may also be complete. If that assumption is correct, sterling has finished its decline and has begun building a bullish trend segment with targets above the peaks of waves B and D — i.e., above the 3,700-pip level. Two waves of the initial wave of the new bullish segment are already formed. Consequently, the advance may continue toward targets near 1.3531 and 1.3651, which correspond to 76.4% and 100.0% on Fibonacci.
Key principles of my analysis:
1) Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are hard to trade and often change.
2) If you are not confident about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.
3) There is no such thing as 100% certainty in direction; do not forget Stop Loss protective orders.
4) Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
