AUD/USD is now moving within impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart) from 1.0379. On smaller timeframes this wave consists of three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with potential impulse subwave РЎ still developing from 1.0218. The latter also contains smaller waves (colored magenta in the chart). We calculate the targets below using Fibonacci retracements of 0.9883-1.0218, and expansions off 1.0752-0.9663-1.0379, 1.0379-0.9861-1.0218, 1.0218-1.0051-1.0202.
Supports:
- 1.0040-35 = confluence area of .50 retracement and objective point (OP)
- 0.9997 = .618 ret
- 0.9937-32 = confluence area of .786 ret and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9898 = contracted objective point (COP)
If the price keeps moving up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0202-1.0044.
Resistances:
- 1.0104 = .382 ret
- 1.0123 = .50 ret
- 1.0142 = .618 ret
- 1.0168 = .786 ret
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (25-40 pips above the current prices), watch for entries short at the indicated resistances.
