AUD/USD is now moving within wave A of medium term downtrend that started from 1.0386 (colored light green in the chart). On smaller scale inside this wave there are A and B subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), with subwave B still developing from 1.0145. Subwave C of still smaller degree (colored red in the chart) is developing from 1.0262.
The targets below are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0351, and expansions off 1.0386-1.0145-1.0351, 1.0351-1.0262-1.0316.
Supports:
- 1.0261 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0248 = .50 ret
- 1.0227-24 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .618 ret
- 1.0202 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0189 = .786 ret
- 1.0172 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0110 = objective point (OP)
If the pair reverses to the upside and breaks above 1.0351 the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0044-1.0386-1.0145, 1.0145-1.0351-1.0262.
Resistances:
- 1.0356 = COP
- 1.0389 = COP
- 1.0468 = OP
- 1.0487 = OP
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is moving down, therefore it's preferable to try short positions before 1.0351 is broken to the upside and when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips above the current), watch for entries short at or near the indicated resistances.
