AUD/USD is now moving within wave A of medium term downtrend that started from 1.0386 (colored light green in the chart). On smaller scale there are A and B subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), and potential subwave C is developing from 1.0377.
The targets below are Fibonacci retracements 1.0145-1.0377, and expansions off 1.0386-1.0145-1.0377, 1.0377-1.0289-1.0367, 1.0367-1.0231-1.0333.
Supports:
- 1.0249 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0228-25 = confluence area of COP and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0197-95 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .786 retracement
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0044-1.0386-1.0145, 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231.
Resistances:
- 1.0374 = COP
- 1.0463 = OP
- 1.0487 = OP
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is moving down (until 1.0386 is broken to the upside), therefore it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current), watch for entries short at or near the indicated resistances.
