Today AUD/USD is still developing wave C of medium term uptrend, that is colored magenta in the chart. The way starts from 1.0231, and it is confirmed, since it broke above the top of wave A - 1.0377. In its turn this wave contains smaller waves. These are A, B and potential C (colored red in the chart), that is developing from 1.0364. To confirm this subwave the price has to break above the top of wave A - 1.0449. If the breakout happens, the targets above the current level will be Fibonacci expansions off A-B waves 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, and also subwaves A and B (they're colored red in the chart) 1.0231-1.0449-1.0354.
Resistances:
- 1.0463 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0489 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0572 = OP
- 1.0606 = expanded objective point (XOP)
But if the price keeps declining and breaks below 1.0354, we'll have subwave C of the same degree (that is colored red in the chart) developing from 1.0436. The targets below will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0449, 1.0231-1.0449, and expansions off 1.0449-1.0354-1.0436.
Immediate supports:
- 1.0341-40 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .50 retracement
- 1.0333 = .382 ret
- 1.0314 = .618 ret
- 1.0297 = .50 ret
- 1.0282 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0261 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is still going up, that's why we'd better open longs when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (10-20 pips below the current prices).
