Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting three-week high at 102.16 on Tuesday as markets await 1230 GMT U.S. advance estimate 2Q GDP (forecast +3.0%) and 1800 GMT Federal Open Market Committee's interest rate decision: the Federal Reserve is expected to cut its monthly bond purchases by another $10 billion to $25 billion. USD/JPY is also underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 81.21 versus 81.01 early Tuesday) on a surprise rise in Conference Board U.S. consumer confidence index to a near-seven-year high of 90.9 in July (versus forecast for drop to 85.0) from a revised 86.4 in June (first reported as 85.2). USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers. But USD sentiments are dented by the weaker-than-expected 9.3% on-year rise in U.S. May S&P / Case-Shiller 20-city Home Price Index (versus +9.9% forecast). USD/JPY gains are also tempered by the Japan exporter sales, lower longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields; selling of yen crosses amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 5.73% to 13.28, S&P 500 fell 0.45% to close at 1,969.95 overnight) on increased geopolitical worries as the U.S. and EU expanded sanctions against Russia over the conflict in Ukraine. Daily chart is positive-biased as five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing,MACD and stochastics are bullish, although latter is at overbought zone.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish; five-day moving average is rising above 15-day MA.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.25 and the second target at 102.40. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.65. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.45. The pivot point is at 101.75.
Resistance levels:
102.25
102.40
102.65
Support levels:
101.65
101.45
101.15
