Fundamental Overview:
NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting seven-month low at 0.8128 this morning.It is Undermined by the less hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy stance, narrowing NZD-USD interest differential and weak dairy prices. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross. NZD/USD is also underpinned by the positive USD sentiment on higher-than-expected preliminary University of Michigan U.S. September consumer sentiment index of 84.6 (versus forecast 83.0 and final-August 82.5); higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.609% versus 2.551% late Thursday) as market participants anticipate a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve in its policy statement on Wednesday.
Technical Comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages are falling.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8120. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8075. The pivot point stands at 0.82. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8225 and the second target at 0.8265.
Resistance levels:
0.8225
0.8265
0.8305
Support levels:
0.8120
0.8175
0.8135
