General overview for 18/09/2014 15:00 CET
Another impulsive bearish count has been invalidated on lower time frame, so this is the time to check the larger time frames and update the overall outlook for this pair.
Starting from the weekly chart, the impulsive structure in big wave 1 blue has been completed and for 50% of time of this wave 1 the market had been in complex corrective cycle that has been completed this week and labeled as big wave 2 blue. First confirmation came with the long-term golden trendline breakout and now the outlook is incredibly bullish but one word of a caution must be said: the corrective cycle in big wave 2 blue has not even met the minimum retracement criteria of 23%Fibo. That means the corrective cycle might not be necessary completely absolutely finished, but this might be the first stage of more complex wave 2 blue. Nevertheless, currently there is no reason or evidence to claim that scenario might be valid and the focus should be still on impulsive bullish wave progression to the upside.
Another question that begs to answer is about the internal structure of the wave progression in the recent complex corrective structure. On H4 time frame I have presented another possibility for bullish wave progression to the upside, but the different cycle is being tracked now: it is either the beginning of a big wave 3 blue, or the last impulsive wave to the upside, labeled as wave 5 purple. Time will tell what part of a cycle the market is currently developing.
Back on the intraday H1 chart we can see very impulsive wave progression to the upside and next projected target is at the level of 140.76.
Support/Resistance:
140.76 - WR1
140.20 - Intraday Resistance
139.82 - Intraday Support
138.30 - Weekly Pivot
138.25 - 138.41 - Supply Breakthrough Zone
Trading recommendations:
Daytraders should refrain from trading until corrective cycle will create an opportunity to open a buy position.
Swingtraders should buy the dips in this market with initial SL below the level of 138.24 and open TP.
