The AUD/USD pair is developing the potential corrective wave B of the medium term uptrend (coral in the chart) from 1.0856. Within this wave there subwaves A, B and C (royal blue in the chart). An impulse subwave C is developing from 1.0636 including the subwaves A and B (magenta in the chart); the subwave B is developing from 1.0336. However, due to exessive advance within corrective subwave B (magenta), wave C (royal blue) from 1.0636 may be completed. Within the wave B (magenta) there are four subwaves (orange red in the chart), with subwave 4 still developing from 1.0545.
The upside targets are Fibonacci retracements1.0856-1.0336 and expansions1.0336-1.0449-1.0371.
Resistances:
- 1.0554 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0596 = .50 retracement
- 1.0657 = .618 ret
- 1.0667 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
If the price reverses to the downside, the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements 0.9861-1.0856, 1.0336-1.0545 and expansions 1.0856-1.0423-1.0636, 1.0636-1.0336-1.0545.
Supports:
- 1.0465 = .382 ret
- 1.0440 = .50 ret
- 1.0416 = .618 ret
- 1.0360 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0245-41 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving down, so it is better to go short when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips above the current prices). Mind the possibilities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.
