Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is undermined by flows to the haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion as exit polls showed the Greek party Syriza leading in national elections on Sunday. The latter heightened fears that Greece will eventually exit the eurozone. The pair is also weakened by Wall Street losses Friday (VIX fear gauge rose 1.59% to 16.66, S&P 500 closed 0.55% lower at 2,051.82) due to the the Greek fears, drop in Chicago Fed National Activity Index to -0.05 in December from +0.92 in November, weaker than expected 2.4% MoM increase in the U.S. December existing home sales to 5.05 million (versus forecast +3.0% to 5.08 million), lower Markit flash U.S. January manufacturing PMI of 53.7 versus forecast 54.0 and December's 53.9. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 1.818% versus 1.896% late Thursday) and Japan's exports. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the broadly firmer USD undertone (ICE spot dollar index hit nine-year high 95.481 Friday, last at 95.35 versus 94.21 early Friday), demand from the Japanese importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is neutral.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 118.60 and the second target at 119. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short posisitions are recommended with the first target at 117.20. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 116.80. The pivot point is at 117.50.
Resistance levels:
118.60
119
119.30
Support levels:
17.20
116.80
116.50
