EUR/USD
REVIEW
Spain, Italy, and the eurozone actual PMIs fell short of expectation expectation. However, the euro area retail sales advanced. The Spanish services sector continued strengthening. The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index posted 56.2 in February, slightly down from the reading of 56.7 seen in the previous month. The Italy services sector stagnated in February following a marginal uptick in activity at the start of the year. Italy's PMI in the services sector logged 50.0 in February, down from January’s reading of 51.2. In January 2015 compared with December 2014, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade rose by 1.1% in the euro area and by 0.8% in the EU, according to estimates from Eurostat. The eurozone economic growth hit a seven-month high, as output expands across ‘big-four’ nations. In February, the eurozone Services Business Activity Index rose to a seven-month high of 53.7 signalling an acceleration in the rate of expansion of services output for the third month in a row. The final Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index got to 53.3 signalling an expansion for the twentieth month in a row, but came in slightly softer than the earlier flash estimate of 53.5. Positive data from the US pushed the pair to a fresh low. There is a possibility that the benchmark interest rate will be lifted.
Upcoming events
Today, traders eye the ECB press conference waiting for details on the ECB quantitative easing that begins in mid-March. The ECB steals the show. The other economic data include German factory orders and retail PMI. The US will reveal unemployment and factory orders data.
Technical view
Ahead of the ECB press conference, the pair lost its ground at yesterday's session. It is trading in a mild positive tone at the Asian session. We have been recommending selling with targets at 1.1100, 1.0970, and 1.0930. The pair made a low at 1.1062. The broken support base turned into the resistance zone between 1.1260 and 1.1280. The prices are closed and trading far below hourly moving averages. Until prices close below 1.1150, use every rise to sell. The weekly resistance is found between 1.1210 and 1.1260. Forgot buying, until the price closes above 1.1210 on a positional basis. We recommend fresh risky selling below 1.1060 with targets at 1.1000, 1.0990, and 1.0930.
Resistance: 1.1100, 1.1125, 1.1160.
Support: 1.1160,1.1140, 1.0990.
Trade: selling below 1.1060, panic below 1.1040.
We recommend safe selling below 1.1040.
EUR/JPY
Ahead of the ECB press conference, the euro is trading higher against the yen at the Asian session. The cross lost 1.0% in yesterday's trade and closed at the lowest point of the day. The pair founds immediate support at 132.25. The cross is closed and trading far below 20Dsma, which means a near-term bearish outlook. The cross made a double top at 136.68 and has been making a descending trend line on the daily chart, which represents a positional bearish view. Investors' focus is shifted to today's ECB press conference. Expectations hit high of details of the ECB quantitative easing. On a positional basis, bearish view is on play. Until the price closes above 134.00, use every rise to sell. The lowest lows and lower highs have been developing on the h4-chart, suggesting more room for a downside is yet to come. At yesterday's session, we recommend selling below 133.65. Panic will be triggered below 133.40 with targets at 132.75, 132.50, and 132.30. The cross made a low at 132.40. On the down side, the prices formed a base support between 132.38 and 132.28. The intraday resistance is set between 132.70 and 133.30. The pair can regain upswing momentum only above 134.00. We recommend intraday fresh selling below 132.25 with targets at 132.00, 131.60, and 131.20.
If the pair closes below 132.25 on a weekly basis, it can extend its downward journey towards 131.20, 130.90, 129.50, and even to 129.00. Steep fall will be triggered below 129.00 with targets at 128.00, 125.00, and even 122.50.
Key levels to watch: 132.25 weekly and 129.00 monthly.
