Fundamental outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the improved dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 98.04 versus 97.95 early Wednesday) after stronger-than-expected 6.1% increase in the US existing home sales to 5.19 million in March, the highest level in 18 months (versus forecast +3.1%). USD/JPY is also supported by the higher US Treasury yields (10-year at 1.982% versus 1.914% late Tuesday), demand from Japan importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 4.08% to 12.71) as U.S. stocks rose overnight (S&P 500 closed up 0.51% at 2,107.96). But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is tilting bullish as stochastic is rising from oversold levels, the MACD histogram bars are turning positive.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 120.45 and the second target at 120.85. In the alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.35. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 119.10. The pivot point is at 119.60.
Resistance levels:
120.45
120.85
121.35
Support levels:
119.30
119.10
118.85
