FX.co ★ AUD/USD Wave Analysis for July 12, 2012

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the AUD/USD pair was trading in an upward move developing corrective wave B (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (2) (coloured green). During the European session we could observe an ascending movement towards the 1.0280 level and we can consider this move as the end of the B wave (coloured blue). Therefore, during the New York session the AUD/USD pair started pushing lower trying to develop the final C wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (2) wave (coloured green). Today during the early Asian session we could observe continuation of the bearish mood from yesterday's NY session and the price reached 1.0175 level. At the moment we can observe the price trading around 1.0150 level and we are expecting to see the price around 1.0100 level today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 2 retraces 61.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracements (0.9968-1.0328) with Take Profit at 1.0105 (61.8% of wave 1). Resistance point at 1.0180 can be used as Stop Loss point. Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. Unemployment Claims, Import Prices m/m, Federal Budget Balance and FOMC Member Williams Speaks data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 1.0133 (S2) 1.0173 (S1) 1.0197 (PP) 1.0236 (R1) 1.0276 (R2) 1.0300 (R3) 1.0339
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules this week, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 1.0150 with Stop Loss at 1.0180 and Take Profit at 1.0105 are recommended.