Global macro overview for 18/08/2015:
Another set of data from UK is scheduled for release today at 8:30 GMT including consumer price index, core CPI, retail price index, and PPI input/output. All of them can update the inflation view for the rest of the year as at present the UK inflation is near zero (short deflation in April 2015). The core inflation is still well under 2% and most of this can be explained by a sharp fall in energy prices (overall positive for the economy). The consumer price index is expected to be lower than the previous reading: -0.3% m/m; 0.0% y/y vs. 0.0% m/m; 0.0% y/y. Moreover, the core CPI is expected at the level of 0.8% y/y, which is in line with the flash estimate. It means the prices mustn't rise in the month of July, nevertheless the recent sharp decline in commodity prices is likely to add fuel to the fire. So inflation expectations in the months ahead might still remain under downward pressure.
The technical picture of GBP/USD shows another clear rejection of the important demand breakthrough zone and decline towards the golden trend line. Any breakout above the level of 1.5689 is bullish, but after testing the zone eight times last month, the GBP/USD pair is likely to drop towards the lower support levels.
