The spot rate has broken the intermediate support of its medium term bullish channel at 96.50 leading to an acceleration after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has refrained from taking further monetary easing at a meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee completed Thursday. At the same time it evolves now in a short term bearish channel and tests the lower limit of this one at 96.10. A break of this level will allow it to reach the lower limit of its medium term channel at 95.70.
Technical indicators provide sell signals but approach oversell zone supporting the assumption of a rebound. Moreover, until the support is not broken, the hypothesis of a rebound is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
We can consider two scenarios: the first one is to buy at the level of 96.10 with the 1st objective at 96.60. The second one is a “sell stop” and sell as soon as the spot rate is broken through its support at 96.10 with the 1st objective at 95.70.
