The spot rate evolves since august 16th between the upper limit of its medium term bullish channel at 99.30 and the intermediate support of this one at 98.20. An exit of this range will allow it to free a large potential in the first case initiating a more violent bullish channel, and in the second case - reaching the lower limit of its channel at 96.40.
Technical indicators provide sell signals and until the support or the resistance is not broken, no real movement is detected. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement. Furthermore, the upper band strengthens the upper limit of its channel supporting the hypothesis of a violent movement in case of failure.
As the spot rate tests its support, we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a rebound where we suggest a buy at the level of 98.20 with the 1st objective at 98.80 and then at 99.00. A breakthrough of 98.00 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is the hypothesis of a break of its support then we advise a “sell stop”. We recommend to sell the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its support of 98.20 with the 1st objective at 97.60 and then at 97.40. A breakthrough of 98.40 will invalidate this scenario.
