It\'s been a long time since the last still air with the EUR/USD currency pair. The session opened on August 04 at 1.4414. In the beginning there was a slight lowering, after that followed the pair\'s return to the opening level. All trade was moving within the price range 1.4378-1.4446. The rise or fall was not impacted by the fundamental data from Japan, Eurozone, the USA or by the other oil price upturn. The trading session closed with a slight privilege of bears, the Japanese candle was bounced back in favour of bulls.
In the first part of the European deals was issued the producer price index, which showed growth of 0.30% , compared to the last period coming in better than the experts forecasts. The last period reading was at 0.00%.
The USA released the PCE index, measuring personal expenditures and determing the inflation growth tested by consumers while paying for goods and services. This index showed a tick up by 0.20% coming in line with the economic predictions. Personal consumption expenditures price index did not promt any dynamics demonstrating an increase by 0.40%, compared to the last period. That means that witnessing the first signs of overcoming the crisis, the Americans are beginning to spend their money put by «for rainy day». However, the earnings of Americans fell after 4-month rally, more severe than it was expected. The drop amounted to -1.3% against the same last year period. The previous estimate showed an advancement by 1.3%. Mostly, this indicator decrease has been caused by relatively slow jobless rate pace lately.
The number of housing contracts rose by 3.60% compared to the last period increase 0.80%. Despite this data came in better than the experts forecasts, it did not manage to put the market in motion and «wake» it up. The Ex-Chairman of the U.S. FRS Alan Greenspan made a conclusion in his yesterday\'s speech that it seen a recovery in the U.S.housing market, but amid this the prices may move downwards, and in case they fall more than by 5% the economy will be hit significantly again. Hopefully, these observations will be just observations and there will be no substantial negative changes with the mortgage.
According to the U.S.Treasury, in the 3d quater this year will be issued 406-bln.dollars government bonds against 515-bln.dollars bonds, targeted in April. The main reason of emission contraction is that several financial companies returned its government more than 70 bln.dollars in June, appropriated earlier within the anti-crisis package.
Concerning the technical pattern, everything remains steady. The level of 1.4446 is seen as the most relevant and its break through will open the way to 45 big figure. The resistance is the upper bound of rising price channel of July 07, 2009 and the bounds of internal sideward channel, which was shaped yesterday. The Bollinger bands stood parallely to each other and it is reasonable to consider them as secondary support or resistance levels.
Today\'s economic calendar is full of different publications, including the Eurozone retail sales, the MBA refinance index and ADP non-farm employment adjustments, so it is better to pay attention to it.
Today I recommend to buy the pair at 1-hour timeframe closing above 1.4452 with the target – T/P 1.4542 and S/L 1.4381.
Sell the pair at 1-hour timeframe closing below 1.4371 with the target – T/P 1.4310 and S/L 1.4426.
Best regards,
Analyst: M.A.Magdalinin
