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AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis, the AUD/USD pair was trading in a downward move, like we expected developing impulsive 1 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (3) (coloured green). Yesterday, during the Asian and European sessions, we could observe a strong descending movement from 1.0450 towards the 1.0386 level and we can consider this move as the end of the wave 1 (coloured blue). Therefore, during the New York session, the AUD/USD pair started pushing higher when developing of the corrective wave 2 (coloured blue) starts. Today during the Asian session, the AUD/USD finished developing of the 2 wave at 1.0444 level and we are expecting to see price around 1.0230 soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 should retrace 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.0518-1.0386-1.044), with Take Profit 1 at 1.0229 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use resistance at 1.0445 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks and U.S. S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, CB Consumer Confidence, Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0352 (S2) 1.0378 (S1) 1.0395 (PP) 1.0422 (R1) 1.0448 (R2) 1.0465 (R3) 1.0492
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1.0395 with Stop Loss 1.0445 and Take Profit at 1.0229 are recommended.
