FX.co ★ Fundamental Analysis, for September 25, 2012

On Tuesday evening little changes can be observed on currency markets. European currencies remain slightly bullish on the short-term charts, while oil is slowly recovering from the lows it reached early Monday.
The presentation of the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will start from 9:00 East Berlin on the occasion of the Day of German Industry. His words, without the scope of a figure like Ben Bernanke, for example, will be followed by the markets, waiting for definitions in several respects.
The ECB, as the representative of Europe in recent times, laid the groundwork for a ransom of troubled economies with Spain and Italy on the top. But there are several problems in the environment.
The ECB announced several days ago that it will buy bonds in perpetuity to States that so request. In this regards, it is a more than positive news. It is the way for a government to be funded without paying usurious rates. But we know the announcement about "bond purchase unlimited" means a ransom demand, which implies for governments politically not completely stabilized, as Rajoy and Monti in Spain and Italy respectively.
The other question is to know what are the conditions imposed by the ECB bond purchases. Such purchase was announced, but did not require any changes, and that it is dangerous. Too well it adresses to the euro in these circumstances, closer to its record high. Of course, the euro gained some positions in this view. The weak dollar is all that explains the current 1.30 euro.
The stillness of the market, however, has its origin in a similar behavior of the New York Stock Exchange. Except some papers, such as Apple (the day that Apple's strong buyers take profits, the great bubble burst and flooded market rivers), the rest of the moves remained without clear trends in both the Nasdaq and the index Dow Jones thermometers, major indicators of the world's leading financial center. The Dow Jones index futures have only made a pullback against the neck line figure of short-term trend (triple top), which could trigger a decline in the index leading roles.
If this happens, the major currencies will soon fall during the U.S. session, although, again, both the euro and the British pound and the Swiss franc moved shyly in an upward direction right now. In the case of the euro, the overcoming of 1.2965 would lead to 1.30 without breaks, but the currency will pass through 1.2930 high of the single currency several years ago.
The pound has a clearer upward movement, although the area of ​​1.6250 can be challenging. And the yen, which is again very strong, approaches its maximum of 14 September, when it touched 77.10, where it began a sharp decline, accentuated by the semi BOJ intervention with the so-called "stimulus plan" of the last week.
The publication of consumer confidence index from the United States is expected at 10:00, ending the reporting calendar date. So far, we anticipate no significant changes in trend. Unless Draghi prepared a surprise.