The EUR/USD pair has formed a series of secondary trendlines and has been testing the primary uptrend line. The euro is certainly a market consolidation. It seems that we will not stay long in this pattern; the Spanish government still has to ask for a bailout, as it is expected, and secondly, the Federal Reserve announced a third round of quantitative easing. It creates more uncertainty.
At the technical level, on the chart we can see that the euro is above its uptrend line and above the 200 day moving average periods (Blue); it increases the probability of an upward movement. Therefore, we recommend buying above 1.2967, weekly pivot level or if there is a return to the trend line, buy at a low price 1.2910.
Taking into account the current situation I suppose that if the euro continues with the consolidation in the coming weeks, then a fall to 1.25 will be triggered. I see it as a probable scenario; I expect a weekly close below 1.2750 to sell this pair.
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