Yesterday the markets surprised us. Firstly, U.S. GDP was down 0.1% against forecast for growth for 1.2%. Secondly, neither stock markets, nor Forex have changed amid the information. DJIA lost 0.32%, but it is little as its record was registered in the middle of 2009. The euro rose 76 points. News agencies say this reaction was due to ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in January which was better than forecast: 192K against 165K and increase in Eurozone Economic Confidence. However, the information that ADP for December was revised from 215K to 185K is not taken into account. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims is expected to rise from 330K to 350K. Data on Nonfarm payrolls is forecast to be 160K against 155K in December.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has unleashed the power of the central bank to buy unlimited amounts of Treasury and mortgage- backed securities in a bid to end a 4-yesr long period of unemployment above 7.5% and support the economy. The central bank said yesterday it would keep purchasing securities at the rate of $85 billion a month as the economy paused because of temporary forces including bad weather conditions. In the Euro Area Gross Domestic product in Spain fell 0.7% in Q4 against drop for 0.3% in Q3. It was forecast to drop 0.6%.
Thus, it will influence data which will be lower than the forecast. The growth of the markets in these circumstances is unnatural.
Today at 11:00 GMT+4 Retail Sales in Germany in December is released. It is expected to increase 0.1% against 1.2% in November. At 12:55 GMT+4 Unemployment Change in Germany is published. It is forecast to up for 8K against 3K in December. Unemployment Rate is expected to be flat, 6.9%.
At 17:30 GMT+4 Personal Spending and Personal Income, and Initial Jobless Claims are published. Personal spending is expected to rise 0.3% vs. 0.4% in November. Initial Jobless Claims is forecast to be 350K against 330K in the previous week. At 18:45 GMT+4 Chicago Purchasing Manager Index in January is released, forecast 50.5 against 51.6.
From the technical point of view the breakthrough of 1.3600 resistance on the daily chart. If the rate consolidates under 1.3557, the support level on the H4 bearish targets are open, they are depicted on the trend lines on the H4: 1.3506 and 1.3470.
