Yesterday the data on ADP Employment Change in the US in February was more surprising than overrated data that was issued last year in order to calm the investors amid the fiscal cliff. In February it was 198K against forecast for 172K and data for January was revised from 192K to 215K. Obviously, Nonfarm Payrolls, which will be issued on Friday, will be higher than its forecast for 161K. There seems to be some doubt as there were job cuts which started in December. The stock markets grew. However, it was difficult for the euro to depict the direction; Italy is on the verge of the political crisis parliamentary fractions refuse to form coalitions and the possibility of reelection is getting closer. As the result the euro dropped 83 points.
Reports from US Federal Reserve March Beige Book indicated that economic activity generally expanded at a modest to moderate pace since the previous Beige Book.
Today at 15:30 GMT+4 Factory Orders in Germany in January is published. IT is expected to be 0.6% against 0.8% in December. At 16:45 GMT4 ECB Interest Rate Announcement and at 17:30 GMT+4 ECB Press Conference. It is expected that he will give a hint about the ECB will reduce its benchmark interest rate soon. It may be lowered even today, as the ECB does not manage to attract money to the market by other means. US Trade Balance may influence the euro negatively. It is issued at 17:30 GMT+4. It is forecast to be $-42.8 bln against $-38.5 bln in December.
From the technical point of view, if the rate is not lowered, the trade is expected to be in the range 1.2922 to 1.3011. Resistance of the trendline on the H4 and the indicator lines form the upper boarder and the lower boarder is support of the trendline on the daily chart, which coincides with the level of Fibonacci 314% on the H4.
