The markets are still under the pressure of fundamental data. GfK Consumer Confidence Survey in Germany in March was flat, 5.9. Retail Sales in Italy in March fell 0.5% vs. drop for 0.1% in February. Italy’s 10-year bond yield climbed 4 basis points to 4.82%. It jumped 21 basis points yesterday, the most in a month, as Democratic Party leader Pier Luigi Bersani said there was no chance of a board coalition to end a political deadlock following February’s elections. Italy’s budget deficit for 2014 was revised from 1.7% to 1.8%. US Pending Home Sales dropped 0.4% vs. expectations for 0.3%. The market had nothing to do except move downwardly.
Today at 11:00 GMT+4 weak data on German retail sales in February is expected, -0.6% vs. 3.1% in January. At 12:55 GMT+4 Unemployment Rate in Germany is revealed, it is expected to be flat 6.9%.
At 16:30 GMT+4 US GDP in Q4 is published. It is forecast to be 0.5% vs. 0.1%, the second estimate. Probably in the current situation the markets cannot react optimistically if the data is better. Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims in the US is expected to be 338K against 336K and Chicago Purchasing Manager Index, which is issued at 17:55 GMT+4, is expected to drop, 56.3 vs. 56.8. However, if US GDP is not lower the forecast it may influence the growth of the stock market to a greater extent. Thought, it is not enough for the growth of the euro.
From the technical point of view, despite the negative fundamental data, the downward movement is restricted by support of the trendline on the daily chart 1.2717, movement to that level is possible after the yesterday’s low is tested. If the rate consolidates above the level of Fibonacci 361.8% on the H4 (1.2800), the target 1.2840 opens. If the data is better than forecast, the price may reach the resistance on the H4, 1.2893.
