Yesterday the pound did not manage to hold the highs. Probably it was due to expectations for weak UK Trade Balance which is revealed today. This morning BRC Retail Sales Monitor in March has been issued. The growth was 1.9% vs. 2.7% in February. UK Trade Balance in February is published at 13:30 GMT+4, forecast for -8.7 billion pounds vs. -8.2 billion pounds in January. Industrial production is expected to grow 0.4% vs. increase in 1.2% in January. Manufacturing production in February is estimated to rise 0.4% vs. a 1.5% drop in January.
At 18:00 GMT+4 NIESR GDP Estimate in March is published.
Technically, we expect that initially the reaction amid the news release will be bearish to the level of 1.5218 (the high of March 29) and then the growth along the market to the level of 1.5294 followed by the next attempt to consolidate above the Fibonacci extension on the H4 (1.5368). The price still stays firmly above the indicator lines on the daily chart and we consider mainly buy operations.
