Yesterday data on US Existing home sales in March was published. It was 4.92 million annually vs. forecast for 5.02 million. Figures from the previous month were revised downwardly by 0.02 million. Yesterday data on companies’ financial performance was issued, it was rather weak. Caterpillar cut its growth forecast for the next quarter, however it stated it is about to buy its own bonds. As the result DJIA grew 0.13%, the euro dropped 11 points.
Today data on PMI Services and PMI Manufacturing in France, Germany, and the eurozone in April is published. The estimates are slightly better than the previous reading. At 12:00 GMT+4 Retail sales in Italy are expected to grow 0.4% vs. -0.5% in January.
At 18:00 GMT+4 data on US New Home sales is revealed. It is expected to be 419K vs. 411K in February. Taking into account data that was released yesterday, we can expect today’s growth will not be in line with forecasts. The investors are waiting for the week’s major event US GDP in Q1 in the first reading. On May 2, the ECB speaks about key rate and it gave hint of the rate’s slash. We consider that at least till April 26 the investors are not eager to buy.
Technically, the euro is under pressure, on the H4 the price is under the indicator lines, Marlin oscillator is in negative zone. When the rate consolidates under the testing level of 1.3037, the price may reach the first target 1.2992, then 1.2968 (the level of Fibonacci 23.6% on the daily chart), and the third target is 1.2920, support of the trendline on the daily chart. If the price breaks above 1.3068, the move to the level of 1.3107, Kruzenshtern line on the daily chart on the H4, may be observed. However, the further growth is unlikely.
