Yesterday data on the UK was weak, Public Sector Net Borrowing in March increased to 16.7 billion pounds vs. forecast for 14.3 billion pounds, Industrial order book balance was -25 against forecast for -14. As the result the pound fell 53 points.
At 12:30 GMT+4 data on UK BBA Loans for House Purchase in March is revealed. It is expected to rise from 30.5K to 31.2K. At 14:00 GMT+4 CBI retail sales volume balance in April is published, forecast 7 vs. 0 in March. Mixed data is expected on US Durable Goods Orders (orders excluding transportation 0.5% vs. -0.7%, orders excluding defense -2.7% vs. 4.5%).
From the technical point of view the next scenario is expected: if the data on the UK is positive, the growth to the level of 1.5260, the high of March 25, is possible and if the US news is not disappointing we expect further growth to 1.5287 intending to consolidate above the indicator line Kruzenshtern (blue sliding) on the H4. If data on US is weak, a reverse under the Fibonacci extension on the H4 is possible with downward movement to the level of Fibonacci 236%, 1.5182 and then to the area of 1.5155/64, support of trendline on the daily chart. You should take into account the fact that both on the daily chart and H4 Marlin oscillator is on the zero level, which in case the price is located on the Fibonacci extension on the H4 creates balance, the market considers to move further and false technical movements may occur.
