Yesterday data on Retail Sales in the eurozone in March was in line with forecast (-0.1%), but annually it was worse than expected -2.4% vs. -2.2% and -1.7% in February. Amid weak macroeconomic data for this week for Europe and the US, the euro moves downwardly. During yesterday’s speech European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers are ready to cut again after reducing its benchmark to a record low 0.5% last week. Until there is no news from the Fed, the market will develop according to a traditional scenario. The situation on the Korean peninsula becomes more stable, North Korea moved two ballistic missiles away.
At 10:45 GMT+4 data on France is published; Industrial Production in March is estimated to be -0.2% vs. 0.7% in February. Trade Balance is expected to be -5.3 billion euros vs. -6.0% in February. At 14:00 GMT+4 figures of Factory Orders in Germany in March is issued, it is expected -0.4% vs. 2.3% in February. At 23:00 GMT+4 information about US Consumer Credit in March is issued, it is forecast to be $16.2 billion vs. $18.1 billion in February.
Technically, a bearish tendency has been formed, divergence on the daily chart, on the H4 the price is under the indicator lines, Marlin oscillator is in the negative territory. If the price breaks the price channel on the H4 (lower 1.3053), the first target area opens 1.2986-1.3000. The second target is 1.2954, the third is 1.2925 9support of the trendline on the daily chart). As the data is expected to be weak during the week, we expect the descending movement to the targets on the daily chart 1.2845 and probably further to the low of April 4, 1.2750.
