Yesterday we expected positive amid the UK macroeconomic events. However, it did not prove. The UK Retail sales instead of being flat dropped 1.3%. Public Sector Net Borrowing was 8.0 billion pounds vs. expectations for 7.7 billion pounds. The UK Factory orders index was -20 vs. forecast for -18. As the result during the publication of recent Bank of England report 9the figures were the same as in the previous month), the pound started to drop. After Ben Bernanke's speech the pound continued falling and the closing price was lower than the opening price for 104 points.
Today at 12:30 GMT+4 data on UK GDP in Q1 in the second estimate is published, it is forecast to be flat, 0.3%.
At 16:30 GMT+4 data on US Initial Jobless Claims is issued, forecast 347K vs. 360K. At 17:00 GMT+4 ISM Manufacturing in May is revealed, forecast 51.6 vs. 52.1 in April. At 18:00 GMT+4 data on US New Home Sales in April is issued, forecast 429K vs. 417K in March.
If data is not lower than the forecasts we expect technical consolidation of the price above the Fibonacci extension on the H4, higher 1.5053; then 1.5115 is the target, it is the nearest Fibonacci extension. If data is weak, the price may drop to the low of March 1, 1.4986.
