US data on Durable Goods Orders in April published on Friday was better than expected (3.3% vs. 1.6%). However, investors preferred not to take active measures before holiday. As the result the euro and the stock market indices close the day near the opening prices.
In the three coming day relevant information is not published. However, the overall preceding sentiment was nor in favour of risks. Last week S&P500 dropped 0.96%, in spite of the euro closed the week having grown 90 points, the currency rose due to technical correction mainly – closing of the short-term sells. Concerns about QE3 trimming are still expressed in the US media and the first negative is expected on Thursday pertaining to decrease in the Existing Home sales and on Friday amid drop in the Personal spending which came worse than expected.
Technically, we may see that on the daily chart last three candlesticks were outlining the Kruzenshtern trend line (blue sliding) and could not close above it. If it is broken to the downside, we expect further descending movement to the low of May 17, as the first target of week's downward movement. On the H4, if the support on the level of 1.2907 is overcome, we expect drop to the Kruzenshtern line, 1.2880, the next target is 1.2857, support of trend line.
