This morning the price has broken support of the trend line and indicator line on the daily chart and technically the euro has prerequisites for further decline. Today news on the US is expected to be positive, but as we have already noticed amid expectations for QE trimming the rise of the macroeconomic indices would stimulate the way out from risk. On the other hand, the rise will promote the strengthening of the US dollar against the perspective of further cut of the ECB rate.
Bloomberg issued forecast for Nonfarm Payrolls in May, data on it will be revealed on Friday, June 7, 163K vs. 165K in April. Thus, situation on the labor market, as well as situation on the real estate market is stable and it strengthens the outlook about future QE3 cut.
Today at 17:00 GMT+4 S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices in March are published, forecast 0.7% vs. 0.3% in February. At 18:00 GMT+4 Richmond Fed. Manufacturing Activity Index in May will be published, forecast 2 vs. -6 in April. US Consumer Confidence in May is expected to be 70.7 vs. 68.1 in April.
We expect the price declines to the support of trend line on the H4, 1.2857. The second target is 1.2820, the low of May 23.
If the testing level 1.2937 is overcome, the growth to 1.2956, the high of May 23, is possible. The next target is 1.2988, the lows of April 25 and 26. However, downward movement is expected to resume soon.
