Nationwide House Price Index in the UK in May grew 0.4% vs. expectations for 0.5%. However, the investors considered this increase to be rather optimistic and started to buy the pound along with the euro until the opening of the US session. Data on the US was worse than forecasts (GDP in the second estimate was lowered from 2.5% to 2.4% and Initial Jobless Claims were 354K vs. 340K). As the result the pound grew 100 points.
Today at 12:30 GMT+4 data on credit financing int eh UK in April is issued. Mortgage Approvals are expected to rise from 54K to 55K. Net Lending to Individuals is expected to be flat, 0.9 billion pounds. If data on US Personal Spending is not weak (some news agencies forecast 0.1% vs. 0.2% in the previous month), then the pound may close the day with white candlestick.
Technically, we expect the growth to the range 1.5270/80, the low of April 15 – the high of May 20, where we expect reverse starting from the beginning of following week amid weak macroeconomic data (drop of PMI in China and the US and fall of Nonfarm Payrolls in the US) with the target 1.5087 and lower to 1.4915.
