Macroeconomic events published on Monday did not manage to create an optimistic mood. Manufacturing PMI in Eurozone in May was 48.3 vs. forecast for 47.8, Manufacturing PMI in the US in May was 49.0 vs. estimates for 506. US Construction Spending in April grew 0.4% vs. expectations for 1.0%. However, the investors considered weakness on data as a sign of QE3 would not be cut in the short term and started to buy high-risk currencies. We do not think that it will continue in the same manner as inverse regularities do not exist for a long time. Published today data as well as news released in the following days is not optimistic. The major economic event for today is US Trade Balance in April is expected to wide deficit to $41.1 billion from $38.8 billion. Tomorrow Retail sales in the eurozone in April are expected to drop. On Thursday, Factory orders in Germany in April are estimated to contract and ECB Interest Rate Announcement is to be published. Investors fear the bank will cut the interest rate.;
However, there is hope that optimistic news will be published. At 11:00 GMT+4 data on Unemployment Rate in Spain in May is issued, it is expected to drop. At 13:00 GMT+4 PPI in eurozone in April is revealed. It is expected to be flat, -0.2%.
Technically, the price did not manage to consolidate above the blue trend line on the daily chart and above the indicator line of balance of the price (red sliding). In this context, one more test upwards is possible, however, in order to consolidate the growth, the price has to consolidate above yesterday's high. We expect drops to 1.3000, the low of April 17/high of May 22.
