Global macro overview for 21/03/2017:
The last week is just an uninterrupted array of good information for the single currency. At first, the Dutch Eurosceptics suffered a defeat, then the hawkish signals from the ECB began to hit the market (contrasting with the Fed's dovish remarks). Finally, Macron turned out to be the unambiguous winner of the first television presidential debate in France. In conclusion, it is a good time for the common currency, both from a fundamental and political point of view.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. The EUR/USD 1.0800 move was primarily based on covering short positions on the Euro, with a long run against the dollar. In other words, the positive attitude to the dollar has evaporated, as has the negative attitude to the euro. Today, the market has no arguments either to buy the US dollar or to sell the euro. However, the dynamic of recent events speaks in favor of the continuation of the upward movement. Breaking 1.0828 will open the way to the 1.0870 area (ECB summit and 200-session moving average). To go further and continue to increase to 1.1000 (a target suggested by the January rise), the market will need a weak Marie Le Pen finish before the first round or more reliable ECB signals (eg: in the minutes of the last ECB meeting, which will be released on April 6).
